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How “Higher for Longer” Interest Rates Can Impact Your Investments

May 2, 2024

The stock market has had a rough ride this past month. The S&P 500 index closed out April at 5035.69, down over 200 points (-4.2%) since the close of March. Investors have become pessimistic and frustrated, and it’s largely because the deep interest-rate cuts that the market expected early in the year just aren’t materializing. 


The “good news” coming out of the Fed’s May 1 meeting was that Chairman Powell didn’t see any new rate INCREASES on the horizon. While there will certainly be opportunities to make money in a high interest rate stock market, investors would be well-served to evaluate their holdings and potentially make some changes.

The Federal Reserve started raising rates over two years ago in March of 2022 as it became clear that runaway inflation was not transitory as first thought, and the problem was not going to fix itself. By July of 2023 short-term interest rates had gone from close to 0% to over 5%, where they have essentially stayed since. Despite a slowing of inflation, it still stubbornly remains above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.


Currently, the market’s interest-rate cuts expectations have evaporated: Instead of the six quarter-point rate cuts expected earlier this year, the consensus now is that only one or two cuts will occur this year. Personally, I believe there’s at least a 50% chance we don't see any rate cuts from the Fed this year.


Operating under this assumption, here are a few things to watch for. First, the housing market will likely continue to be murky at best. The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage is 7.5%, the highest level in two decades. That’s causing current homeowners to stay in their homes financed at lower rates rather than move into other homes with higher mortgage rates. This creates a domino effect as it limits available inventory for first-time home buyers that have essentially been priced out of the market. Reduced inventory, turnover, and new home starts are hitting companies that provide housing materials and build homes hard. When interest rates are high, that’s generally a sector of the market to avoid, and it’s part of why the economy in general could struggle in the next few months.

Another sector that is likely to be hit hard by a higher-for-longer environment is small-cap stocks. Smaller companies need to borrow capital to grow, and higher costs of capital push their profitability lower. Consequently, many are forced to put growth plans on hold. Additionally, elevated inflation usually hits consumer-discretionary industries. Americans could rein in their vacation travel, for instance, hurting companies in related businesses.


I also suggest exercising caution and selectivity with regards to corporate bonds in a high-rate environment. Many debt-laden companies, faced with higher rates, run a greater risk of default than I believe the market truly appreciates.


So, where can opportunities be found in a “higher for longer” interest rate environment? A good place to look is companies that have low levels of debt, have increasing sales, and that have the cash to purchase distressed companies. Some of the biggest and best-know technology companies have billions of dollars of cash available, and as small companies wrestle with high-interest debt, many have become targets rip for acquisition.

As always, choosing the right mix of investments depends on your goals, your timeline and your comfort level with risk. Don’t hesitate to get in touch with us if you’d like to discuss your investment portfolio.

By Doug Kronk June 26, 2024
As a small business owner, offering a comprehensive 401(k) plan is a key strategy to attract and retain top talent while promoting long-term financial health for your employees. Here are five best practices to ensure your plan is effective and beneficial for everyone involved: 1. Automatic Enrollment Automatic enrollment is a powerful tool that can significantly boost participation rates in your 401(k) plan. By making it the default option, employees are automatically enrolled unless they opt-out. This approach has been proven to be effective: 84% of employees with auto-enrollment participate in their 401(k), compared to just 37% without it. 2. Matching Contributions Offering matching contributions not only incentivizes employees to save more for retirement but also helps attract and retain top talent. On average, employers match 4.5% of their employees' contributions, according to a 2021 report from Vanguard. This can significantly enhance the retirement savings of your employees and demonstrate your commitment to their financial well-being. 3. Financial Education and Guidance Providing financial education and guidance can empower your employees to make informed decisions about their retirement savings. This can include educational materials, seminars, and complimentary one-on-one consultations with a financial advisor. By equipping your employees with the right knowledge, you help them maximize the benefits of their 401(k) plan and improve their overall financial health. 4. ESG Options Incorporating socially responsible investment options, also known as ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) funds, can appeal to employees who prioritize ethical investing. ESG options are particularly popular among younger workers, with 52% of Millennials investing in these funds, compared to 32% of Gen X and just 14% of Boomers. Offering these options can enhance employee satisfaction and engagement with the retirement plan. 5. Low Fees High fees can erode retirement savings over time, so it's crucial to offer a 401(k) plan with low fees. Evaluating and comparing the fees of different plans can help ensure that your employees retain more of their hard-earned money. This not only benefits them but also reinforces your role as a responsible and caring employer. The Importance of Benchmarking Your Plan Benchmarking your 401(k) plan is essential to ensure it remains competitive and effective. We recommend benchmarking your plan annually, but no less often than biennially. This process involves comparing your plan’s features, fees, and performance against industry standards and other similar plans. Regular benchmarking helps identify areas for improvement, ensures compliance with regulations, and keeps your plan attractive to current and potential employees. Encouraging plan sponsors to routinely have their plans benchmarked by outside professionals, such as ourselves, ensures that they are staying in good graces regarding their ERISA responsibilities. This external review can provide valuable insights and help maintain the highest standards for your retirement plan. If you have any questions about these 401(k) best practices or would like to discuss how to improve your current plan, please don’t hesitate to reach out. We are here to help you navigate the world of retirement planning and ensure your plan meets the needs of both you and your employees. Schedule a Consultation/Meeting with us today to learn more about optimizing your employer-sponsored retirement plan.
By Doug Kronk December 8, 2023
While national focus has been on uncertainty around new tax laws, there are many individual tax-planning opportunities you should consider before year-end to ensure you are getting the best deal while staying compliant. Although the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and SECURE Act of 2019 captured national attention, there are still plenty of tax-planning opportunities you need to pay attention to, particularly if there has been a change in your financial situation during the year. Good tax planning enables you to stay compliant while positioning yourself to pay as little in taxes as possible. Reaching out to your CPA regarding specific tax planning ideas at the end of the year is always smart. Here are some common areas to consider regarding your tax situation as the year is wrapping up. 1. Compare income year over year And don’t forget about making quarterly estimated tax payments when newly retired. Is this year shaping up to be better, worse, or similar to last year? Depending on the answer, you may need to adjust your withholdings and estimated tax payments, particularly if you are newly retired. As a result of the new tax law, there are revised withholding tables in 2018 that could decrease the amount you are required to withhold. On the other hand, you may need to make additional quarterly tax payments if you owe more in taxes than the previous year or risk a penalty for not paying enough taxes unless you are otherwise in the “safe harbor.” Additionally, you should pay state property taxes before year-end to get a federal tax deduction (limited, of course, by the $10,000 SALT deduction that started in 2018). 2. Any big sales this year from stock accounts? Or has there been a rebalancing in taxable accounts? If so, keep an eye on the tax bill. This includes inherited investment accounts; you receive tax-free, but any subsequent sales are taxed. Don’t wait until the end of the year to calculate the taxable gains, and remember to consider harvesting losses to offset those gains. 3. Have you received an inheritance? Although the initial bequest is typically tax-free to the heir, any subsequent sales are taxed on your tax return. And, beware if you are named the beneficiary of an IRA, annuity, or company retirement plan, where the rules vary dramatically. You could be forced to take withdrawals as the original owner was and taxed at his or her highest tax bracket. However, if you inherit a Roth IRA, payouts are tax-free over your life expectancy. 4. Have you bought, sold, or refinanced a house? The profits from the sale of a principal residence are typically tax-free (up to $500,000 for a married couple), but there are some wrinkles, so make sure you qualify. In addition, if you paid off a mortgage on which you were deducting points year by year, you can deduct the remaining balance this year. And if you refinanced your mortgage, it may be possible to generate amortization of points. 5. Visit your CPA before making any charitable donations To confirm that you are taking advantage of all tax breaks available while simultaneously not incurring any penalties, make sure you see your CPA when considering charitable donations. For example, consider donating appreciated securities instead of writing out a check. You can also save money by transferring a required minimum distribution (RMD) directly to a qualified charity, thus avoiding paying taxes on the withdrawal. (Note: You can make these direct transfers after age 70 1/2, but RMDs start at 72.) The result would be a reduction in your taxable income. (But also be aware that the donation maximum is $100,000 and you will not qualify for a charitable deduction when filing federal income taxes). All things considered, it is generally beneficial to make the contribution directly to the charity, rather than take the deduction. 6. Calling all newlyweds! And those who are recently widowed or divorced. Has there been a marriage, death, or divorce? If you got married this year, you should consider how tax rates can increase for a two-earner couple or decrease for a single-earner couple. In addition, if one spouse of a newly married couple is jobless, the unemployed spouse may be able to fund an IRA (despite his unemployed status) if the other spouse is working. Beginning in 2019, alimony is no longer deductible for the payor nor treated as income for the recipient. Divorce settlements need to reflect this. Also, make sure you review who is able to deduct the dependents. If you have been widowed this year, you can still file jointly for this year (next year, you are required to file “single”), but you need to consider possible decreases in income and potential decreases in estimated tax payments. While filing jointly can increase the deductions you are entitled to, make sure to watch out for any possible negative repercussions. You should also review all sources of income with your financial professional to ensure that you get what you are entitled to from the estate and that you understand the distribution rules. 7. Special tips for parents of college students and recent grads The American Opportunity Tax Credit gives parents of college students a tax break worth up to $2,500 of tuition per eligible student for the first four years of college. And recent mid-year grads (or anyone who will not work more than 245 days this year) can request their employer use a part-year method to pay them, which will result in employers withholding less money, leaving more for you. 8. Newly retired? Take control of your tax bracket Discuss tax bracket management with your CPA, so that you are remaining within (and using up as much of) your current tax bracket as possible, whether that is the 10% tax bracket or a higher tax bracket. These strategies could include maxing out on pretax retirement accounts and also taking withdrawals from qualified accounts so that you are converting pretax dollars to after-tax dollars, potentially at a lower rate. However, if you need more income, you should consider doing one or more of the following: withdrawing cash (tax-free) through loans on a universal life insurance policy (although this will deplete the policy’s value), taking out a home equity line of credit (although interest is no longer deductible), or deferring Social Security benefits to reduce long-term tax costs. 9. Consider how recent tax laws affect your situation The tax bill signed into law at the end of 2017 brought some of the most sweeping changes seen in the past 30 years. Perhaps most notably, the standard deduction was doubled, meaning you will need to carefully consider how to maximize your deductions. A host of other changes involve state and local taxes, medical expenses, alimony payments, and more. Then, two years later, the SECURE Act brought a host of changes to retirement plans, reflecting the reality that Americans are living longer and that many haven’t saved enough money. In short, new tax laws haven’t really simplified anything, but there are still plenty of opportunities for tax planning and savings, so continued vigilance is in order. Advisory Services and Insurance Products are offered through Vector Financial Services, LLC (Vector), an Indiana Registered Investment Advisor and Insurance Agency. Investments may lose value and are not FDIC-insured. Vector may only conduct business in states where the individual and firm are licensed or are exempt. Nothing contained herein should be considered investment advice; a financial professional should always be consulted. All content is provided as a courtesy for informational/educational purposes and on an “as is” basis by an unaffiliated third-party provider who is wholly responsible for the content. Custody and brokerage services are accessed via Intelliflo, with individual accounts held at separate custodial firms, all of whom are members of FINRA/SIPC and are unaffiliated third parties to Vector and/or Intelliflo.
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